Eco+Nomics

So, Mario Draghi said that an inflation much lower than 2% is against his mandate. And it is! If you ask me, early 2015 is the right time, if not too late, to buy sovereign bonds. Let me, please, tell you what I think. First of all, given that Eurozone economy is below its potential, inflation risk will remain low, and the zero lower bound will prevent monetary policy to be "hazardously" inflationary. But, this is an argument why we should not fear of inflation, if the ECB decides to take bold action. True! For now... Moreover, given that we remain below our potential output, member states have begun to deviate from austerity and call for more expansionary budgets. Sooner or later, they will start creating budget deficits as a mean of expansion. And this has two implications. The first one, which relates to my previous argument is that budget deficits will boost expansion, and, hence, the return to the potential output. Therefore, the later the ECB decides to act, the mo...

I have been trying to explain for a long time why stock prices in the US have been increasing regardless the troubling recovery of the economy. This morning, I was browsing the Bagliano & Bertola (2004) book (a rather comprehensive with a fascinating subject if you ask me) when I saw an equation regarding the capital gains the profits and the short term interest rate. Extending this equation can very well justify the blooming US stock exchange. Let me elaborate on that. In equilibrium state the sum of operational-profits-to-assets and the capital gains equal the short term interest rate rate of government debt securities. It makes sense: if bond rate is higher demand for these securities increases, so does their price and subsequently interest rate falls; if the returns of the government debt is lower than the sum of profits-to assets and capital gains, demand decreases, price falls and subsequently interest rate increases. The following illustrates what happens when the short t...